Choice of fuel for heat power plants in areas of new development taking into account the uncertainty factor [ВЫБОР ТОПЛИВА ДЛЯ ТЕПЛОВЫХ ЭЛЕКТРОСТАНЦИЙ В РАЙОНАХ НОВОГО ОСВОЕНИЯ С УЧЕТОМ ФАКТОРА НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ]
The relevance of the research is caused by the transformation of the methodology for substantiating the development of energy from centralized state planning to a new paradigm for multilateral decision-making and the creation of mechanisms for their implementation in terms of multi-criteria, multiplicity of conflicting interests, uncertainty of initial information and conditions for further development. New conditions for substantiating the decisions are considered in the context of the construction of thermal power plants in remote areas of new development, where local energy resources are considered as fuel. The choice of fuel determines the economic and technical indicators of power plants, their environmental and social impacts. In order to justify the choice of fuel for thermal power plants from the point of view of numerous criteria in the conditions of uncertainty of initial information and future development conditions, it is necessary to create new methodological approaches. The main aim of the research is to propose a methodology of multi-criteria fuel selection for a thermal power plant in the areas of new development taking into account the uncertainty factor. Objects: organic fuel deposits in remote areas of new development. Methods: multiplicative method of the analytic hierarchy process, method of multi-criteria utility theory, methods of interval analysis, methods of fuzzy set theory. Results. The author has carried out the review of modern methodological approaches in the problems of substantiation of the choice of fuel for power plants and proposed the modification of the method of the analytic hierarchy process. It allows taking into account the uncertainty of the source information and the ambiguity of preferences of decision makers, as well as significantly reducing the number of requests for information. On the basis of the modified method, the author developed the technique of multi-criteria selection of fuel for thermal power plants in the areas of new development. Its application is considered on the problem of coal selection in three points of perspective siting of thermal power plant in Omsukchansky and Severo-Evensky districts of Magadan region. The criteria used to compare the alternatives are: fuel cost, pollutant emissions from fuel combustion, fuel reserves, development and production conditions, the impact of fuel combustion emissions on the health of the population, employment of the local population. © 2020 Tomsk Polytechnic University, Publishing House. All rights reserved.
Библиографическая ссылка Shakirov V.A. Choice of fuel for heat power plants in areas of new development taking into account the uncertainty factor [ВЫБОР ТОПЛИВА ДЛЯ ТЕПЛОВЫХ ЭЛЕКТРОСТАНЦИЙ В РАЙОНАХ НОВОГО ОСВОЕНИЯ С УЧЕТОМ ФАКТОРА НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ] // Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University, Geo Assets Engineering. Vol.331. No.9. 2020. P.96-107. DOI: 10.18799/24131830/2020/9/2812
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![Choice of fuel for heat power plants in areas of new development taking into account the uncertainty factor [ВЫБОР ТОПЛИВА ДЛЯ ТЕПЛОВЫХ ЭЛЕКТРОСТАНЦИЙ В РАЙОНАХ НОВОГО ОСВОЕНИЯ С УЧЕТОМ ФАКТОРА НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ]](/local/templates/ISEM_2024/images/icons/publication_type_article.png "Choice of fuel for heat power plants in areas of new development taking into account the uncertainty factor [ВЫБОР ТОПЛИВА ДЛЯ ТЕПЛОВЫХ ЭЛЕКТРОСТАНЦИЙ В РАЙОНАХ НОВОГО ОСВОЕНИЯ С УЧЕТОМ ФАКТОРА НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ]"){kind=icon}