Assessment of the Economic Risk of Projects for the Export of Electricity from Russia to Northeast Asia
The assessment of the economic efficiency of projects for the export of electricity from Russia (the Far East) to the countries of Northeast Asia and their economic risk has been carried out. The costs of generating and transporting electricity from the exporting country (Russia) were compared with the costs of generating electricity in the importing country. Due to uncertainty of the input data, in some cases it is not possible to unambiguously assess the effectiveness and make a decision on the approval or rejection of the project. For such projects, their economic risk is assessed. The scenarios of the conditions for the implementation of export projects are considered, which differ in the costs of generating electricity in Russia and for its transportation, as well as the costs of generating electricity by competing power plants in the countries of Northeast Asia. Each option is assigned a quantitative assessment of the degree of its possibilities—subjective probability. The distribution function of the economic effect is obtained—the probability that the effect is less than a given value. Projects were identified for which the probability of loss does not exceed 50%. Among the risky projects, the most promising are the projects for the export of electricity from Primorskaya nuclear power plant (NPP) and Sakhalinskaya thermal power plant (TPP). © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
Библиографическая ссылка
Marchenko O.V., Podkovalnikov S.V., Solomin S.V. Assessment of the Economic Risk of Projects for the Export of Electricity from Russia to Northeast Asia // Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies. Vol.272. 2022. P.59-68. ISBN (print): 9789811687587. DOI: 10.1007/978-981-16-8759-4_7
