Department of Energy-Economy Interactions #20

Research topics:

Modeling methods for the study of energy-economy interactions;
Methods for the estimation of possible macroeconomic and social consequences of different energy development strategies and policies;
Study on the energy consumption regularities and development of methods for the prediction of situation in the regional energy markets;
Modeling and study of how the uncertainty of future conditions influences the efficiency and implementability of the scenarios of energy systems development;
Methods for estimating how inertia, economic, and other barriers affect the development of energy industries and for considering these barriers in prediction studies.

Main results of the studies in the recent years.

Methods of integrated estimation of how the changes in prices of energy carriers influence the economy, society, and regional budget are developed
A methodological approach to long-term forecasting of fuel and energy needs that takes into account the price elasticity of demand for energy carriers is devised
Influence of different factors on energy consumption is studied; possible changes in fuel and energy needs of Russia, Siberia, and the Far East are estimated for various scenarios of economic development
Methods for assessing the influence of initial data uncertainty on the comparative efficiency and riskiness of the scenarios in regional fuel supply systems are developed
A scheme of step-by-step calculation and a corresponding system of models are suggested to determine the direction of possible and effective energy development under different price, tax, and export policy
A concept of barriers to energy development and methodological approaches to the estimation and consideration of some of them in prediction studies are developed.

Participation in large-scale projects:

Energy strategy of Russia;
Energy strategy of Siberia and the Far East;
EURIO Project – the project of the European Union on adaptation of the energy and economic models developed in West European countries for Russia, and their improvement;
Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies and New Energy Infrastructures in Eurasia – the projects of International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria);
ENRICH Project - the project of European Community on spreading the experience in solving climate change problems;
Project of International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) on assessing the potential and cost of greenhouse gas emission reduction in the European countries;
Development of methods and study of inertia and adaptability properties of the energy sector and its capabilities to provide more rapid development of the Russian economy.